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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-06-27T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-27T11:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39805/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the South in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-06-27T11:00Z, as well as in SOHO LASCO C3, GOES CCOR-1 and to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a slow, minor filament liftoff seen beginning at approx. 2025-06-27T04:00Z, centered at approximately S25W15 as seen in SDO AIA and STEREO A EUVI 304, along with field line movement and post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 171, and 193.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-01T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39807/1
Model Inputs:
2025-06-27T11:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=7.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=307.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2025-06-27T21:51Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-07-01T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-30T14:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250627_215100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 84.27 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-06-27T17:44Z

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